Description

This analysis provides a forecast of VET prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-10-13 0.014848 0.016807 0.018945 0.021454 0.024321 0.027499 0.031294
2024-10-20 0.011503 0.014101 0.017185 0.021128 0.026052 0.032022 0.039840
2024-10-27 0.009455 0.012213 0.015674 0.020357 0.026566 0.034563 0.045722
2024-11-03 0.008580 0.011576 0.015512 0.021100 0.028891 0.039458 0.055025
2024-11-10 0.007854 0.010998 0.015297 0.021660 0.030928 0.044079 0.064403
2024-11-17 0.007253 0.010498 0.015096 0.022158 0.032859 0.048676 0.074207
2024-11-24 0.006543 0.009751 0.014440 0.021882 0.033565 0.051476 0.081545
2024-12-01 0.005963 0.009128 0.013890 0.021681 0.034317 0.054362 0.089271
2024-12-08 0.005473 0.008589 0.013403 0.021508 0.035060 0.057258 0.097283
2024-12-15 0.005198 0.008357 0.013366 0.022036 0.036977 0.062233 0.109365
2024-12-22 0.004806 0.007896 0.012913 0.021819 0.037591 0.065032 0.117881
2024-12-29 0.004629 0.007774 0.013004 0.022525 0.039861 0.070924 0.132707
2025-01-05 0.004194 0.007184 0.012264 0.021731 0.039406 0.071939 0.138590
2025-01-12 0.003878 0.006776 0.011806 0.021396 0.039764 0.074497 0.147817
2025-01-19 0.003529 0.006277 0.011141 0.020615 0.039187 0.075191 0.153325
2025-01-26 0.003433 0.006229 0.011286 0.021368 0.041647 0.082062 0.172515
2025-02-02 0.003319 0.006136 0.011335 0.021935 0.043787 0.088509 0.191615
2025-02-09 0.003205 0.006032 0.011354 0.022440 0.045846 0.094994 0.211632
2025-02-16 0.003005 0.005748 0.011003 0.022161 0.046228 0.097948 0.223939
2025-02-23 0.002831 0.005500 0.010702 0.021957 0.046745 0.101241 0.237453
2025-03-02 0.002674 0.005275 0.010427 0.021781 0.047304 0.104674 0.251740
2025-03-09 0.002602 0.005214 0.010482 0.022317 0.049506 0.112090 0.276919
2025-03-16 0.002460 0.005000 0.010204 0.022097 0.049952 0.115439 0.292140